Min Aung Hlaing, elected on April 3, needs to revive the moribund economy, improve energy and food security, curb inflation, resolve the entrenched ethnic crisis, and instil political stability. 

Foremost, he must re-engage ASEAN, which has drifted away from Myanmar. 

“Stabilising the internal political and security situation, possibly through the offer of a national dialogue, improving the economic situation, and expanding foreign policy options might be some of his goals,” former Indian Ambassador to Myanmar Rajiv Bhatia told Bernama.

The International Monetary Fund has forecast economic growth of three per cent this year, against inflation of 28 per cent. 

Rising prices, due to short supply since the outbreak of the West Asia military conflict in late February, have further pressured an economy that depends on major exports  –  rice, garments and agricultural products. 

According to Myanmar’s Energy Ministry, the government imports five million tonnes of fuel annually, at a cost of over US$5 billion. At least 97 per cent of petrol and diesel used in the transport sector is imported.

Myanmar’s hardship has been profound. The resource-abundant country, home to about 55 million people, has yet to recover from a series of destructive natural disasters.

Cyclone Mocha in May 2023, Typhoon Yagi in September 2024, and the 7.7-magnitude Mandalay earthquake in March last year rocked the Southeast Asian nation.

More than three million internally displaced people urgently need humanitarian aid, according to several United Nations agencies based in Yangon. 

In addition, the prolonged internal conflict between government military forces and armed ethnic groups in parts of Myanmar, who are seeking identity and greater autonomy, remains an intricate issue.

A swift solution is crucial to ending the prolonged armed conflict along ethnic lines that threatens internal security and fuels arms and narcotics smuggling to online scam hubs. 

The military coup in 2021, when Min Aung Hlaing was army chief, has further dragged Myanmar into a deeper political quagmire. 

“The critical issue is whether he will continue his hard line of the past or show some resilience as a civilian leader.

“If he offers reconciliation, at least some elements of the resistance may react positively.

“And the parliament can be used to build on it. Otherwise, political stalemate and therefore armed clashes are bound to continue,” said Rajiv, also a Distinguished Fellow at Gateway House, a Mumbai-based foreign policy think tank.

As the world witnesses geopolitical transformation and the global order being challenged by conflicts in Iran, Palestine, and Ukraine, Min Aung Hlaing needs to reconnect with ASEAN to bolster regional security. 

Dr Rahul Mishra, Senior Research Fellow at the German-Southeast Asian Centre of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance, Thammasat University in Bangkok, said that normalising relations could be tough.

The new government’s legitimacy is being questioned by the international community, which does not recognise the recently concluded elections. 

“For ASEAN implementing the five-point consensus, protecting the civil and human rights of the people of Myanmar and holding a free and fair election has been the key condition for including Myanmar back in the ASEAN community. 

“Since 2021, ASEAN members have been quite clear on this point, particularly because the military junta (government) has neither shown any intent nor taken any steps to keep its promises,” Mishra told Bernama.

As for trade, ASEAN is Myanmar's largest regional trading partner, accounting for around 33 to 45 per cent of its exports and imports, with trade volumes exceeding US$10 billion annually, said Mishra.

Another challenge facing Min Aung Hlaing is the continued detention of Myanmar’s veteran politician Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been held by the military for nearly five years since the coup. 

He also needs to address the genocide case involving the Rohingya minority Muslim community, which is ongoing at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands, to clear Myanmar’s international image.

-- BERNAMA