The situation has escalated following a series of military exchanges involving the United States (US), Israel and Iran since Feb 28, with tensions in the waterway severely disrupting oil flow and fuelling global energy shocks, despite a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire on April 8.

The US has also enforced a naval blockade on vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports since April 13, further fuelling uncertainty in global energy markets, driving up energy prices, and raising transportation and production costs across the region.

Geostrategist Prof Dr Azmi Hassan said the unfolding crisis is likely to feature prominently at the summit, as ASEAN economies remain highly exposed to external shocks and supply chain pressures.

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He said the situation underscores the strategic importance of key regional waterways such as the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, which serve as vital arteries linking global trade and energy flows between East and the West.

While the conflict may be geographically distant from ASEAN, its economic impact is immediate and significant, particularly through disruptions to energy supply chains affecting developing economies in the region, he added.

“The impact on ASEAN and the global economy is expected to be high on the summit agenda, with a focus on ensuring that key waterways such as the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca remain open and are not used as geopolitical tools, as seen in the Strait of Hormuz,” he told Bernama.

Azmi said the crisis has drawn attention to a critical chain of maritime chokepoints, from the Strait of Hormuz across the Indian Ocean to the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, which underpin global energy flows.

“The Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea serve as vital waterways connecting East and West,” he said, warning that any disruption could send shockwaves through international trade and supply chains.

He added that preserving open, secure and unimpeded shipping lanes remains critical to sustaining global trade and energy flows.

Against this backdrop of rising energy and supply chain risks, Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia analyst Dr Yanitha Meena Louis said the summit will serve as a key platform for ASEAN to demonstrate its ability to respond collectively to external shocks, particularly as rising costs and supply uncertainties continue to weigh on regional economies.

She said that while the repercussions of the situation in West Asia are dominating attention, it is equally important for ASEAN member states to maintain their central role in addressing these challenges.

“While it is easier for ASEAN member states to prioritise national responses and treat a regional approach as secondary, the decision to proceed with the summit despite logistical challenges signals a clear commitment to collective action, which is crucial to ASEAN’s continued relevance,” she told Bernama.

She added that continuity from Malaysia’s chairmanship last year remains important, particularly in strengthening and consolidating the ASEAN Geoeconomic Task Force as a platform to address emerging economic challenges.

Despite the West Asia conflict taking centre stage, Yanitha said ASEAN must sustain momentum on key regional priorities such as the South China Sea Code of Conduct and the Myanmar crisis, even as global challenges continue to dominate the agenda.

She noted that while these issues have taken a back seat amid more immediate pressures, maintaining progress on specific, achievable areas remains crucial.

“It is not easy to retain focus on these issues, which have been pushed to the back burner by more pressing challenges facing the region. However, what would help is to sustain momentum on specific objectives that can contribute to progress, such as advancing cooperation to tackle illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing in the South China Sea and addressing transnational crime arising from the situation in Myanmar,” she said.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and his regional counterparts are set to convene at the summit under the theme “Navigating Our Future, Together from May 7 to 8.

-- BERNAMA