AMRO Raises Malaysia's 2026 Growth Forecast To 4.9 Pct On Strong AI-Driven Exports
By Anas Abu Hassan
SINGAPORE, July 27 (Bernama) -- The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has revised Malaysia's growth forecast upward to 4.9 per cent for 2026 from an initial 4.6 per cent projection, driven by robust AI-related demand.
In its July 2026 Quarterly ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) report released on Monday, AMRO said Malaysia's growth is projected to advance to 4.7 per cent in 2027, with headline inflation maintained at 2.0 per cent.
AMRO group head and principal economist for regional surveillance Allen Ng said the revised growth for Malaysia was driven by a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of 2026 especially in exports and investments.
"We have upgraded growth for the remainder of the year on continued strength in the AI-driven exports, as well as in sustained investment especially in data centres, and also a rebound in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, he said in a virtual media briefing on Monday.
Ng reiterated that Malaysia's outlook for the remainder of the year remained positive, although he expects growth to moderate slightly in the second half on weaker domestic-oriented manufacturing.
"But we expect continuous strength in export-oriented electrical and electronics," he added.
Commenting on the ringgit’s performance, Ng said the local currency will continue to be influenced by both external and domestic factors, citing the United States monetary policy, global risks sentiments and Malaysia's economic fundamental.
"I think Malaysia's stronger growth outlook, sustained investment inflows, and healthy external position should provide underlying support for the ringgit.
"But having said that, short-term volatility is likely to persist given the ongoing uncertainty in West Asia, and also uncertainty surrounding monetary policy in the US and also US tariff policies," he said.
Meanwhile, AMRO has also raised ASEAN+3 regional growth forecast to 4.1 per cent for 2026, before projecting a slight moderation to 4.0 per cent in 2027, supported by robust demand for semiconductor and AI-related products.
It said the headline inflation is projected at 1.6 per cent in 2026, down from 1.8 per cent forecast previously, reflecting lower global commodity price assumptions.
AMRO chief economist Dong He said ASEAN+3 has remained resilient, supported by firm domestic demand and its central role in global AI supply chains.
"The impact of the West Asia conflict has also been less severe than initially expected, although elevated energy and input costs continue to pose risks to inflation and industrial activity," he said.
He said inflationary pressures have remained broadly contained, with price increases concentrated mainly in energy and transport, while core inflation has risen only modestly.
However, food inflation could rise as higher input costs and adverse weather conditions feed through to prices, he added.
-- BERNAMA
